ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a variable course across the United States. Understanding its evolving impact on heart and lung transplantation (HT and LT) will help with planning for next phases of this pandemic as well as future ones. METHODS: We used Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from before the pandemic to predict the number of waitlist registrations and transplants expected to occur between March 15, 2020, and December 31, 2020 (if no pandemic had occurred), and compared these expectations to observed rates. The observed era was divided into wave 1 (March 15-May 31), wave 2 (June 1-September 30), and wave 3 (October 1-December 31). We used multilevel Poisson regression to account for center- and state-level COVID-19 incidence. RESULTS: During wave 1, rates of heart registrations and transplants were 28% (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.67-0.77]) and 13% (IRR: 0.87 [95% CI, 0.80-0.93]) lower than expected; lung registrations and transplants were 40% (IRR: 0.60 [95% CI, 0.54-0.66]) and 28% (IRR: 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66-0.79]) lower. Decreases were greatest in states with the highest incidence where registrations were 53% (IRR: 0.47 [95% CI, 0.36-0.62]) and 59% (IRR: 0.41 [95% CI, 0.29-0.58]) and transplants were 57% (IRR: 0.43 [95% CI, 0.31-0.60]) and 58% (IRR: 0.42 [95% CI, 0.29-0.62]) lower than expected. Whereas HT largely recovered during waves 2 and 3, LT continued to fall short of expectations through the end of the year. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic in the US substantially reduced thoracic transplant access. Ongoing evaluation of the risks and benefits of this dramatic practice change is critical to inform clinical decision-making moving forward.